Photo : European Union, 2022. Source: EC - Audiovisual Service
19 July 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #257
War in Ukraine: Day 143 & 144
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 18 July President Volodymyr Zelenskyy temporarily suspended the Head of the Security Service (SBU) Ivan Bakanov and Prosecutor General Iryna Venedyktova. The president’s office said that even though an investigation was to be conducted on them, they have not been completely dismissed from service yet. The two top officials were removed in accordance with “Article 47 of the Disciplinary Statute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” which elucidates that a “serviceman” can be removed if they caused a significant threat, or failed to perform their duties leading to “human casualties or other grave consequences.”
In his address, Zelenskyy alleged that Russia was holding back the Ukrainians in the occupied regions in an “information vacuum.” He reported that 1,028 settlements were liberated from Russia, while 2,621 still remain under control.
On 18 July, the Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces released a statement on the ground developments, where several attacks across Kharkiv, Sloviansk, Zaporizhzhia, the Bakhmut region were observed. Followed by shelling, airstrikes were recorded in Rubizhne, Bohorodychne and Berestove.
The Russia’s navy was also found to be still blocking civilian ships in northwest Black Sea.
On the same day, in an interview with Forbes, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, blamed Russia for no progress on peace negotiations. He mentioned that any attempt at negotiation has been met with further strikes on Ukraine. While president Zelenskyy does not rule out the possibility of negotiations, Kuleba said: “Russia must sit down at the negotiating table after its defeat on the battlefield. Otherwise, it will again be the language of ultimatums.” In an address to the EU Foreign Affairs Council, Kuleba also outlined that “weapons to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and accountability for Russia” were the only three ways to restore peace to Europe and enhance the security of the continent. Additionally, the foreign ministry accused Russia of illegal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war. It urged Russia to adhere to the 1949 Geneva Conventions and stop using the captured soldiers for their “own political purposes.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 18 July, at a meeting with the Council for Strategic Development, president Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia will not backtrack from years of progress due to the West’s isolation. He said that Russia was being denied access to foreign hi-tech products but assured that they will not “lose heart” about it. While outlining their priority tasks, he said: “Obviously, we cannot develop in isolation from the rest of the world. And we won’t. It is impossible in the present-day world to merely issue as decree and erect a huge fence. It is simply impossible.”
The State Duma deputy chairman, Dmitry Novikov claimed that Ukraine’s military might overthrow their president. He further said that it would be best if they started to adhere to what Putin had recommended at the beginning of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine and their objective there.
On 18 July, Russia’s defence ministry reported that the defence minister Sergei Shoigu had instructed the Vostok group to prioritize the destruction of long-range weapons from Kiev with high precision weapons. Shoigu reasoned that, it was crucial as Ukraine was shelling residential areas in the Donbas region and wheat fields and storage facilities with the long range weapons.
On the same day, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov said that while Germany is demanding Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the Minsk Agreement, designed for the same purpose was previously “killed” by Germany and France. He also alleged that in 2019, despite having a chance to sign the agreement at the Normandy format summit in Paris, Zelenskyy “did nothing, and Berlin and Paris were shielding him once again.” In an interview for Izvestia, Lavrov criticized France’s proposal to create a “European political community.” He said that the idea was deliberately confrontational and dividing in nature.
Gazprom has issued a letter to its customers in Europe saying that they will not guarantee gas supplies due to “extraordinary” circumstances. The letter says that they will retroactively be invoking the “force majeure,” popularly known as the "act of God" clause. This comes as the Nord Stream 1 pipeline undergoes 10 days of maintenance.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 18 July, the EU has announced that they have signed a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan about doubling their natural gas imports by 2027. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku to finalize the deal. As per the document signed by the two countries, the gas flow through the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline into the EU will be increased to 20 billion cubic metres annually by 2027.
On the sidelines of the ongoing EU meetings in Brussels, Hungary's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó said that the EU had agreed to a new package of sanction on Russia. According to Szijjártó, the seventh set of EU sanctions will upgrade on the existing sanctions and include an embargo on Russian gold. The new package will also restrict the trade of dual-use products for both the civilian and military industries, along with further restrictions on public purchases. However, no official response has been released by the EU.
BBC reported t, UK’s chief of the defence staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said that Russia has lost more than 30 per cent of its land combat effectiveness. He further clarified saying: “What that actually means is 50,000 Russian soldiers that have either died or been injured in this conflict, nearly 1,700 Russian tanks destroyed, nearly 4,000 armored fighting vehicles that belong to Russia destroyed.”
On the same say, the Kommersant newspaper reported that the turbine for the Nord Stream gas pipeline was sent from Canada to Germany. The turbine had reached the Russian Portovaya compressor station, while the pipeline goes through a scheduled annual maintenance till 21 July.
On 16 July, POLITICO reported that Russian students studying in various universities in Europe are facing extreme Russophobia. They are also facing pressure from Moscow to return to their homeland to complete their studies. Some students have also reported that Russophobia has become normalized and was actively contributing to discrimination.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
World’s second biggest clothing retailer, H&M declared that it was “impossible” to conduct their business in Russia and said that they will be discontinue their Russian stores. Though they have not provided a timescale for their exit, they mentioned that before leaving they will aim to sell the remaining stocks. Reportedly, there are over 150 H&M stores in Russia, which employs around 6000 staff, and accounted for the company’s sixth biggest market.
References
“Provide information and emotional support to our people in the occupied areas, tell them about Ukraine - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” president.gov.ua, 18 July 2022
“Zelensky temporarily suspends security chief, top prosecutor from duties,” Kyiv Post, 18 July 2022
“Ukraine Army repels enemy attacks in three directions,” Ukrinform, 18 July 2022
“No peace talks underway due to Russia's fault – Kuleba,” Ukrinform, 18 July 2022
“Kuleba outlines three components of peace in Europe: weapons for Ukraine, sanctions and tribunal for Russia,” Ukrinform, 18 July 2022
“Ukraine demands humane treatment by Russia of captured fighters, including foreigners,” Reuters, 18 July 2022
“Putin: West cannot isolate Russia and send it back in time,” TASS, 18 July 2022
“The Kremlin announced the changed conditions for negotiating with Ukraine,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
“The State Duma announced the possible overthrow of Zelensky by the Ukrainian military,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
“Gazprom announced force majeure over supplies to Europe,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
“Shoigu instructed Vostok to prioritize long-range weapons in Kyiv,” Lenta.ru, 18 July 2022
“Germany and France ‘killed’ Minsk agreements – Russia,” RT, 18 July 2022
“Lavrov calls ‘European Political Community’ deliberately confrontational initiative,” TASS, 18 July 2022
“EU agrees deal with Azerbaijan to double gas exports by 2027,” Euronews, 18 July 2022
“Hungarian FM: EU passes new sanctions against Russia,” Daily News Hungary, 18 July 2022
“UK defence chief: 50,000 Russian soldiers have either died or been injured,” The Guardian, 17 July 2022
“Canada sends repaired Nord Stream turbine to Germany – Kommersant,” Reuters, 18 July 2022
“Russian students in Europe face discrimination — and pressure from Moscow,” POLITICO, 16 July 2022
Michael Race, “H&M to sell off stock before leaving Russia,” BBC News, 18 July 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
ESTONIA
New government formed in Estonia after a collapse
On 18 July, the prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas formed her second government and took the oath in the Riigikogu. She formed her new coalition government with her liberal Reform party, the Social Democrats and the conservative Isamaa party. The previous government collapsed on 03 June after Kaja’s resignation and breaking up her coalition with Center Party as it collided with the opposition EKRE party. From Kaja’s party, the minister of finance Keit Pentus-Rosimannnus, minister of social protection signe Riisalo and Minister of rural affairs Urmas Kruuse retain their positions in the new government. (“Estonia: New cabinet sworn into office,” Deutsche Welle, 18 July 2022)
THE UK
Lizz truss pulls close to Penny Mordaunt in the race for the Tory leadership
On 18 July, foreign secretary Liz Truss neared second place trade minister Penny Mordaunt in the race vying for the seat of the UK's prime minister. She got important backing from conservative MPs with having 71 votes in the latest round, increasing her support from 64. Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor is still leading the race with 115 votes. Sunak needs only five more votes to jump to the final round. According to the conservative party's rule, the lowest placed candidate in each round is eliminated until two remain after which they out to a vote of the rank and file Tory party membership. Foreign affairs committee chairman Tom Tugendhat fell prey to the rule with only 31 votes and got eliminated from the race. Kemi Badenoch, former equalities minister comes in fourth place with 58 votes backing her. Only four members remain out of the ten that started. All the candidates are looking to take the 31 MPs who backed Tugendhat for themselves. Mordaunt or Truss are expected to run against Sunak in the final round. (Andrew Mcdonald, "Liz Truss closes in on Penny Mordaunt in race to replace Boris Johnson," POLITICO, 18 July 2022)
Prime minister Boris Johnson wins yet another no-confidence vote
On 18 July, prime minister Boris Johnson survived another no-confidence vote, winning by 349 to 238 with a majority of 111. Johnson, in his speech, said that the deep state, a term used by conspiracy theorists, is planning to haul the UK back into the EU after he leaves office. The debate on the no-confidence vote on Johnson was opened after his speech in the House of Commons. Johnson accused Keir Starmer and the deep state of having the intention of taking the UK back into the EU. Starmer opposed the idea that until a new leader is chosen Johnson would be leading the government even after his resignation. Labour Party held a motion which indicated no confidence in the government. But the motion was rejected and the government itself tabled a motion of their own and won the no-confidence vote. Johnson also talked about achievements in the last three years of his governance such as Brexit and handling of the Covid pandemic. (Ben Quinn, "Boris Johnson defends record as government wins confidence vote," the Guardian, 18 July 2022)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Berlin hosts Petersberg Climate Dialogue
On 17 July, Germany and Egypt hosting the Petersburg Climate Dialogue in Berlin. The representatives of government from 40 countries will discuss climate protection agreements and preparations for the COP27 World Climate Conference to be held in Egypt from 07-18 November. The secretary-general Antonio Guterres in a video address to the dialogue warned that “Greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise and ocean heat have broken new records. Half of humanity is in the danger zone from floods, droughts, extreme storms, and wildfires. Yet we continue to feed our fossil fuel addiction.” He urged for stronger cooperation between nations. (“Petersberg Climate Dialogue: starting signal for UN climate negotiations,” unric.org, 18 July 2022)
REGIONAL
Northern Ireland and Ireland have successful trading despite Brexit and energy prices
On 18 July, the official government data released in Dublin showed that trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is booming in both directions post-Brexit with a EUR four billion boost. The report reveals that in January and May 2022 the imports from NI to Ireland increased by 23 per cent up to EUR 1.9 billion whereas there has been a 43 per cent increase to EUR1.9 billion in trade from Ireland to NI when compared to the same period in the last year. There has been an astonishing growth in the movement of food and live animals from Northern Ireland to Ireland. Rising energy prices increased energy trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Due to the Northern Ireland protocol, trade between Belfast and Dublin has not been affected by Brexit when compared to the rest of the UK, which is dealing with mountains of paperwork to sell into the EU. (Lisa O' Carroll, "Trade across Irish border booms after Brexit amid energy growth," the Guardian, 18 July 2022)
Heatwave's causing wildfires and concerns in Greece and the UK
On 15 July, Greece's climate crisis and civil protection minister Christos Stylianides talked about the increasing wildfire due to the rising heatwaves in all of Europe. The former commissioner for humanitarian aid and crisis management of Europe also said that he has to fight bureaucracy as well to change the climate crisis that Greece is going through along with the rest of the world. The response from the Greek authorities has been slow when compared to the speeding climate crisis. He also said that they are moving in the right direction to counter the climate crisis. Both the fire department and the forestry service are working hand in hand to prevent and stop wildfires. Elsewhere in the UK, the second hottest temperature in the nation of 38.1 degrees Celsius was recorded in Suffolk on 18 July. (Nektaria Stamouli, "Greek climate minister fights fires — and the system," POLITICO, 15 July 2022; "UK swelters under hottest night on record," BBC News, 18 July 2022)